I have been watching Apple stock from 2007. It is a relatively easy stock to analyze. The number for the product sales and market share are available. It is simpler to make projections with large errors that could still give meaningful conclusions for long term investing.
After years of following bits and pieces by reading news articles, checking out products and buying some, and sometimes reading the patents, a synthesized opinion dawned upon me.
What is Apple doing? It is changing the way we use computers. While the industry and the society needed the Microsoft/Intel model of a stable design to iterate on and make use of Moors law to make computing accessible at costs we can afford (hence make the industry possible), time for change has come. Apple has a history of changing the way we use computers, its time has come again.
The transformation has merely begun. Personal computing the way it is even with the recent devices still requires us to adapt around the devices. Apple has learned the art of changing the game and profit from it.
In the days of the Moors law, the model was to pack more computing punch and indicate it with a number on a linear scale to make people want to upgrade. Technology was ready for sometime to change gears and say leave the computing power upgrade to the server rooms and focus on innovation in user interface.
New and seemless ways of interacting with the computer is driving the industry in this decade. Apple has taken the lead and the competition is doing its job well by making Apple run for its money. The stage is set for transformation of computing devices.
Some things to expect are better speech integration, hand gestures, usage of devices while interacting with others, doing away with traditional laptops, your computer goes in your pocket.
In the end, if you are going to pull out the smart phone in the elevator and miss out on the small talk it is really a matter of your habits. Even the cave men had these problems of focusing on the rock cutting tool when they had the chance to make a meaningful conversation. Not sure if computers can save us from our habits.
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